Can Rahal really be judged?

Turns out the rumors may have been true after all on IndyCar free agent Graham Rahal turning down a ride with Dale Coyne Racing. Sources have told the Indianapolis Business Journal’s Anthony Schoettle that Rahal was offered a two-year contract with a six-figure salary attached, but the 21-year-old American turned it down because he wanted a one-year pact.

Rahal has become the face of a major issue involving IndyCar’s lack of homegrown talent. However, with this revelation, he may be opening himself up for major heat from the base. He has been regarded as one of the key cornerstones for the sport’s future, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a good amount of grief thrown his way from fans who are agitated over the dearth of American pilots and recognize how important it is for Rahal to be racing this year.

A part of me wants to join them. Dale Coyne Racing may not be a Team Penske, Ganassi Racing or Andretti Autosport-level operation, but it’s not the worst team in the paddock either. In fact, they were the only other team outside the Penske/Ganassi bloc to win a race last season. Not only that, note the salary and ask yourself how many drivers would mind being paid six figures on top of having steady work.

At the same time, Rahal’s not stupid. Other teams may have improved in 2009, but every driver wants to win and last year, the scoreboard read “PENSKE/GANASSI 16, OTHER GUYS 1.” The two-team bloc will likely be the only players involved in the championship battle at year’s end, unless Andretti can close the gap and retake their place in the former “Big Three.” Sure, other teams like KV Racing Technology and Dreyer and Reinbold Racing will contend on road and street circuits and maybe on a few ovals as well. But don’t hold your breath on a title run from them.

The competitive gap may be shrinking a little, but it’s still far too big. If Rahal wants to win a championship, he needs to be on the right side of the proverbial chasm. He needs to be driving for Penske, Ganassi or Andretti, and if he can land with one of those squads in 2011, it’ll all be worth it for him. The series will also benefit from having another American ascend to top-tier status.

It must also be noted that he’s said that he has gained some good sponsorship leads for 2011, and for all we know, one of those leads may be hitting as I type this. Also, perhaps Rahal saw something else he didn’t like at Dale Coyne Racing. Keep in mind that Bill Pappas, who was DCR’s engineer last season, is now over at KVRT (I believe he is with E.J. Viso’s program there). How badly that will affect DCR’s performance in 2010 is yet to be seen, but read this post from Indianapolis Star reporter Curt Cavin’s blog and you’ll get an idea of how much Pappas is regarded.

There’s a lot of knowns and unknowns with this situation, and that’s what makes it all so hard to judge. As much as some people want to smack Rahal upside the head for apparently turning down a ride, how much would that particular drive really help him? In order to be the best, he needs consistently good equipment.

What about you all out there? Do you think Rahal deserves slings and arrows or should he be commended for his shrewd approach? Or are you more like me and want to see more information come out first before coming down for or against him?